CheGuevara betting picks

friday night strong pick

Vila Nova – ABC  dnb2 @1.50 (bet365)
stake: 5/10

Vila Nova already relegated, players already start leaving club becuase next season they will play in 3rd league and becuase club is having finacnial problems almost whole season and becuase of late wages.
So Cleber Alves(first gk 32/0),Gabriel(df 28/0),Leo Rodrigues(df 24/2),Radames(mf 28/2),Bonilha(mf 24/1) and Dimba(att 15/1) already left club (5 regular players). Angelo(df 4/0),Julio(df 3/0),Jeferson(mf 14/0),Bispo(df 2/0),Daniel(mf 2/0) and Paulista(att 6/0) are all injured.
Tonight line up will be: André Luís(3/0); Wanderson(9/0), Gustavo, Bruno Bera(0/0) e Wellington(0/0); Felipe Macena, Leonardo, Lucas Sotero(13/2), Hugo(8/0) e Paulinho; Ítallo(14/0).
like you can see 7 reserves/bench players will be in starting line up…

ABC go with strongest possible squad, they need only 1 point officially to avoid relegation so that is the reason why i go with dnb and not clear win here.

bigger stakes than usual, Vila Nova only advantage is home field but they dont have any support by fans anymore because of poor matches and becuase they already relegate..


strong free pick friday

Dijon – Orleans 1 @1.81 (188bet ; pinnacle)
stake: 2/10

Dijon is promotion candidate who is ultra strong on home ground, 6w-0d-0l with only 1 goal conceded. No importnat missings for this match, they also played cup match before 1 week but they won with high 0-9 on away ground so confidence and atmosfhere in team is on good level.

Orleans is new promoted side in league, their main target this season is to avoid relegation and they started good (imo that was lucky start) and after that they enter in serie of 9 matches without a win (in last round they finally win vs weak Clermont 2-1 on home ground) and stop bad serie..
also last week in cup match they play hard game, on penalties (120 minutes + penalties) vs weak 4th league side …
main reason why i bet against them is their form on away ground lately, like i said in last match on away ground they just draw vs poor 4th league side in cup, also in league they are 5 matches without win on away ground so ..
also very important to make this bet are missings in away team, 3 very important players will miss this match.
Orleans without Brillaut(df 12/2) and Ponroy(df 10/1) – central defensive duo, both suspended. Puyo(att 13/4 top scorer) is injured.
The absence of two central defenders will be a massive blow for team and Dijon should use that and win this match.

my prediction 2-0, GL

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19/11 hunting big odds

Universidad SC – Marquense
pick: DNB2 @3.25 (sportingbet)

FT 2-0 lost :-(

I cant understand this odds and I see huge value here.
Ok I know this is league where home ground means a lot and usually hosts won matches but here simply i cant agree about odds! I will explain why..

Universidad is 8th placed with 23 points, of course like all other teams they won most of the points on home ground (20 of total 23) – 6w-2d-1l on home field but today i go against them. They are in terrible form lately 4 matches without a win (1d-3l), In last two matches (where they usually won all points) they didnt win.. They played just 1-1 vs worst team in league Coatepeque on home ground [Big dissapointment], also they lost 0-1 vs Municipal(3rd placed) on home ground…
And most important why i bet against them is the fact that they are missing six important players (3 suspended and 5 injured).. Medina(df 10/0), Moreira(df 16/1), Rodriguez(df 12/1), Torres(df 13/0), colombian experienced Betancur(mf 3/1) and Grajeda(mf 13/0) are all out. Monterroso(df 3/0) and best striker Suazo(att 13/4 ,2nd scorer) are also out due to injury.
link 1:
link 2:

Also from what i read their coach Cordero is having flu so maybe he wont lead the team tonight.

Marquense is 1st on table, leader on table. In amazing form 4 wins in a row without conceded goal! Imo they are better team, in better form.. of course only problem will be field (it means a lot in Guatemala futbol) but still i believe they will do something tonight!
Their line up for tonight; Marvin Barrios; Edwin Fuentes, Joaquín Álvarez, Leonel Noriega, Eduardo Beltrán Soto; Kenwi Velásquez, Brailin De León, Brandon De León, Frank De León, Kevin Norales y Jonny Brown.
strong line up, no rotations. Only two regulars midiflers Grajeda and Leon are missings but imo they are replacable and nothing in compare with hosts absences…

GL guyz.


19/11 free strong pick

I am not in best form latelly, won,lost,won,lost … I cant enter in good form, lets hope thsi one will be winning pick and come back again with our good known long winning runs.

Los Andes – Almagro
los andes -0,75ah @1.73 (bet365)
stake: 4/10

I see this one like big value, great odds.
This is most important match for Los Andes’s in near history, they must win this match to keep/stay on 1st place.
here is what coach said on the press: “We played great season but everything now is in this 90minutes who will be the most important in my life” You see how emotional and motivated they are, they really want this promotion!
confirmed line up for tonight: Maximiliano Gagliardo; Emmanuel Martínez, Maximiliano García, Daniel Franco y Juan Pablo Segovia; Diego Galeano, Mauro Pajón, Fernando Lorefice, Diego Cisterna; Ricardo Vera y Alejandro Noriega
they will go with strongest team!! good news captain Lorefice(mf 18/2) is back.

Almagro is on the bottom, 2nd worst team in league, they are in bad form, 14 matches without a win (7d-7l)… no comment, atmosfhere in team is not good. Also they are poor on away ground 1w-3d-5l. They play for nothing tonight! I dont see reason why would they be party breakers..!/-home/ for this match Bilbao(att 6/2), Quiroz(mf 17/0) and Sparapani(mf 12/2) will be rested.

they met before 1 month
Almagro 0-1 Los Andes.
now Los Andes on home ground, big fan support, highly motivated, msot important match of the season, must win situation.. should be easy home win.


Waterpolo free strong pick – 16:00h start

Greece – Romania 2 @4.60 (unibet) ; 4.50 (tipico , bwin , bet at home)
stake: 3/10

They met before 4 months on the Euro
Romania 9-10 Greece
Yes Greece won that match but on very lucky way, Romania just minute before the end was leading 9-8 and have attack, they missed and Greece on counter attack equalize on 9-9, than Romania had attack for a win, missed again and Greece on just 2 second till the end scored and win the match…

Romania now want revenge, they are with all best players in squad + are added three biggest young talents from their country to get experience, this is very important match for them and they will go for a win.

Atmosfhere in Greece NT is not good, there were some conflicts between players and coach Kechagias so he decide to kick best players and take youngsters and some new faces. Mylonakis, Afroudakis, Delakas and Tsalkis are all out from roster. [[ in that match before 4 months between thsi two sides Mylonakis(2g), Afroudakis(1g), Delakas(1g) ]]

so with thsi situation I see big value in this odds which are imo pretty wrong. Romania +2,5ah @1.85 (bwin) ; 1.81 (marathonbet) is bet for higher stakes.


МФЛ КУП, free pick

Turnovo – Drita
turnovo -1,75ah @1.9 (bet365)
stake: 3/10

Turnovo is not brilliant in league but vs Drita they shouldnt have problems. Cup is the only chance for them to go in Europe this season becuase in league with Shkendija,Rabotnichki and Vardar they dont have chances, so here is the only chance for them.
Turnovo want to win this match without conceded goal, this is important match becuase next match on away ground in Bogovinje will be hard, so here they must make good result and make good advantage.

Drita is poor team from 2nd league, financial problems. Players dont get wages on time, atmosfhere is not on good level. Cup currently isnt important for them, their target is to try to avoid relegation in league because they are in low part of table. They are poor travellers, even lost vs worst team in league who is in big finacnial problems and isnt training (Napredok 3-1)… Also club left some players who have 1st league experience because of unpaid wages and false promises.

small stakes because both are big fixers, and becareful, if asians give this match in offer (even if they dont) drita could make big fix here, they usually fix on goals (big overs)..

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18th november infos

Italy – Albania
Italy with C team today vs Albania, coach Conte decide to rest all players who played in last match before few days vs Craotia, so Buffon(first gk 146/0), Chiellini9Df 74/6), Darmian(df 9/0), Pasqual(df 9/0), De Schiglio(df 16/0), Candreva(mf 26/1), MArchisio(mf 51/4), De Rossi(mf 100/16),  Immobile(att 9/1), Zaza(att 4/1), Shaarawyatt 11/1)  are all out today, Balotelli(Att 33/13),Montolivo(mf 58/2),Pirlo(mf 113/13), Verratti(mf 10/1 injured), Motta(mf 23/1 injured), Osvaldo(att 14/4 injured), Ogbonna(df 10/0 injured), Barzagli(df 50/0) are out from before (some of them retired,some are injured, some out for other reason).
Albania with strongest possible squad, they are not some special NT and something really strong but they draw with strong France few days ago, they won Portugal in Qualifications before 1 month so imo they are in good form and have nice team work.
for today possible line up; Berisha(gk Lazio) – Hysaj(df Empoli), Cana(df Lazio), Mavraj(df Koln), Agolli(df Qarabag) – Lila(mf Giannina), Abrashi(mf Grasshopper), Kukeli(mf Zurich), Memushaj(mf Pescara), Lenjani(mf St.Gallen) – Cikalleshi(att Split)

France – Sweden
Match will be played in Marseille.
France with pretty strong line up: Mandanda, Sagna, Varane, Mangala, Kurzawa, Pogba, Guilavogui, Payet, Valbuena, Griezmann, Benzema
Sweden without some key players, Key defenders M.Olsson(df 26/5 Norwich), J.Olsson(df 24/1 WBA) and Lustig(df 44/2 Celtic) are all injured, Toivonone(att 40/8 Rennes), Berg(att 26/6 Pao) and best player/captain Ibrahimovic(att 101/51 PSG)

Greece – Serbia
both NT are going trough hard days..
Greece in bad form, already lost all chances to qualify for Euro 2016, after the lose in last match from the Faroe Island (0-1) on home ground coach was sacked, atmosfhere in club is bad and they are searching for new selector, this friendly match is not importat for them.
best players are currently not in squad.. Sokratis(df 54/1 Dortmund), Holebas(df 27/1 Roma), K. Papadopoulos(df 16/4 Bayer), Tachtidis(mf 9/0 Verona), Katsouranis(mf 114/10 Pune), Fetfazidis(mf 21/3 Genoa), Salpingidis(att 82/13 Paok), Samaras(att 81/9 WBA), Mitroglou(att 38/8 Oly) are all out
Serbia’s coach Advocat left the club because of poor results, now Serbia will be lead by Curicic(u21 coach). They will miss Kolarov, Nastasic, Bisevac, Kuzmanovic and Tadic, but still Serbia have plenty of talented players who could replace them. Only question is motivation and confidence at this moment..

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free strong pick 17th novemberr

Italy u21 – Denmark u21
italy -0,75ah @1.96 (sbobet) ; 1.95 (12bet;188bet)
stake: 3/10

Italy in last match before few days vs France use u20 squad instead of u21 squad, today this match they take it more serious, coach called very strong u21 squad with players who have big experience playing for NT. Coach on press said: This is more than friendly match for us, we take this match serious and we go for a win.
Italy squad:
Bardi(first gk in Chievo), Baselli(regular in Atalanta), Benassi(regular/rotation in Torino), Viviani(key player in Latina-serie B), Sturaro(imp midifler in Genoa),Belotti(regular in Palermo),Antei(regular in Sassuolo) and big star striker Berardi(16g in seria a last season), with such a players in squad with big experience and already regular palyers in their teams in Serie A and Serie B they simply have to win.

Denmark u21 have solid squad also but not so good like Italy. Also Denmark’s newspapers are writting that this match coach will use like a good preparation match to see what other players (bench players) know to show theirselfs that they worth, so we could expect some mixed team with lot of rotations.. also for this match they have couple of important missings so that could be problem.
Bech(att 2/0 Nordsjaelland), Poulsen(att 8/4 Leipzig), Hojbjerg(mf 5/4), Vestegaard(df 20/3 Hoffenheim), Andersen(mf 7/3 Ajax), Thomsen(mf 13/2 Aalborg) and Christiansen(df 11/1 Chelsea) are all with A national team… big blow for U21 team.

Also Italy have more time for rest (last their match was on 13.11), while Denmark’s last match was before 3 days …
Quallity on home side, fair odds for me here 1.60. I see small value, GL


16th November, free strong pick

Montceau – Nancy 2 @1.7 (bet365)
stake: 4/10;2
also try Nancy -1eh @3.00 (tipico) , stake: 1/10

I planned this to be vip pick but no asians bookies so i decide to put it free.
Big quallity difference here i expected some odds like 1.30 or 1.40 for away win and this 1.70 are imo big value.

Montceau is solid team from 4th france league, they are 3rd palced there with 27 points (far away from 1st promotion place > 36pts) so they are not something great. For this match they will miss three players, out are:  Trevisian(df 4/0), Doumbouya(att 5/1) and Oumakhou(df 7/0). here is their squad.

Nancy is best team from 2nd league, they are currently first on table with 28pts. Not only that they play good football, nice for watching, they have amazing roster (respectable even for 1st league) and they are in good form (9 matches no lose).
For this match they will go with pretty strong team: Beunardeau, Menay, Sami(df 12/0), Lenglet, Muratori(df 12/0), Badila(df 5/1), Amadou(df 14/1), Cétout(mf 9/0), Iglesias(mf 10/0), Karaboué(mf 10/0), Coulibaly(mf 5/2), Lusamba(mf 17/3), Dembélé(att 11/9), Hadji(att 9/0), Dreyer, Busin(5/0)

out are: Nardi(first gk 14/0), CUffaut(df 14/0),Diagne(mf 12/1),Walter(mf 11/0) and Dale(att 14/4), they are important missigns but they have good replacements so no problems.
There are soem young players in nancy who want to show to coach that they worth something and this will be importnat match for them.

Quallity and experience on away side, i expect easy away win.


Sunday interesting infos

Israel – Bosna & Hercegovina
Full stadium is expected today, big fan support for Israel.
B&H will miss some importatn players.. Džeko(att 69/38 Man City), Ibišević(att 62/24 Stuttgart), Vršajević(df 15/1 Hajduk), Kolašinac(df 6/0 Schalke), Salihović(mf 45/4 Hofenheim), Kvesić(0/0 Zeljo), T. Sušić(mf 7/0 Hajduk) are all out due to injuries.
So 4 very important players (cap Dzeko, Ibisevic, Saliovic and Kolasinac) are out, that could be big blow for team. especially will be weakned attack.

Italy – Croatia
italy with very unexperienced squad imo, called players there are with small number of capps in national team, Buffon, Chiellini, De Rossi and Marchisio are only players who have big experience in national team, rest are new names.. some of them even will debut today. Ogbonna(df 10/0 Juve), Bonucci(df 42/3 Juve), Pirlo(mf 113/13 Juve), Aquilani(mf 37/5 Fiorentina), Motta(mf 23/1 PSG), Montolivo(mf 58/2 MIlan), Balotelli(att 33/13 Liverpool) are all out, some are injured, some retired..
Croatia with strongest possible squad.

La Rioja – Metalurg, la rioja -6ah @1.81 (pinnacle)
Because of big finanicla problems, all foreigners (except Djukic) left Metalurg’s team! On this match they travelled only with domestic players + young serbian Djukic.
Stanic(first gk), Kocic(second gk 4/0), best player Atman(B 3/8), Borozan(B 4/1), Cindric(B 4/17) and Marsenic(B 4/5) all left club.
we stayed only on one keeper that is Mitrevski, so board sign some 38y old keeper. We have respectable team right now becuase most of them are Macedonian national team players but imo they are weak and demotivated, payments are late (now after 3 months without wages finally wages are paid) but atmosfhere still is not good.
All players are against coach Lino Cervar, they said that Lino is the man who deserve to go out because this bad results are his fault.
La Rioja must win this match, this is their key match for qualifique in next stage so they will take it very serious, quallity and motivation is on their side, also atmosfhere in their team is much better than this in Metalurg.

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