CheGuevara betting picks

24th premier league pick (strong info)

England Premier League
Aston Villa – Southampton 2 @1.76 (pinnacle)
stake: 4/10

Injury crisis hit Aston Villa’s roster.
key midifler Delph(mf 7/0) and three important defenders Baker(df 7/0), Senderos(df 8/0),captain Vlaar(df 7/0) are all out, also first two strike choices Kozak(att 0/0) and key striker Benteke(att 4/0) are long term injured. So now Villa will miss three best central defenders, key midifler and best striker, that is big blow for the team. Now on CD position will play Okore(0/0) and Claire(4/0) who never before played together in tandem and that will be big problem.

Southampton is in great form, they play amazing season. I watched them few times and I really like them, In midfield they are looking solid with trio Wanyama, Davis and now back France NT player Schneiderlin, in front of them is amazing Dusan Tadic who kill opponent’s defence with his passes.

so quallity and form on away side, + atmosfhere and missings in home side = easy away win
So S’mpton should win here if Aston Vila dont score some lucky early goal or take a lead because of some stupid S’pton mistake.


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my favourite 3for3 couple

Fredericia – Skive;2

4 h2h matches will be played this season so its still early to predict winners and letting points but later will be easy for sure ;)
in 1st match this season Fredericia won (imo clear match 2-0) read here my preview for this two teams before 2 seasons.. last year they werent in same league so they paused :D now they are again together so i again go for HT/FT bets.

1/2 @43.00 (nordicbet) ; 33.00 (sbobet)
stake: 0,5/10
2/1 @38.00 (nordicbet) ; 30.00 sbobet
stake: 0,5/10

also take over 2,5 goals @1.98 (sbobet) for a combo bet :P

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MFL STRONG PICK (23th november)

Sileks – Shkendija 
pick: DNB Shkendija @2.00 (bet365)
stake: 4/10

Shkendija MUST WIN.
After dissapointing results in last few rounds 1-0 lose vs city rival Renova and 1-3 lose vs Rabotnicki fans get angry, one of them go on stadium and talk loudly on players that they dont deserve to wear Shkendija’s jersey and told them if next match they dont came back in Tetovo with win could be problems.

Shkendija’s board also react, they took 70% of wages of Shkendija’s plyers this month… That effect good on players they are training with high tempo now and they are 100% ready for a win tomorrow. I talk with one Shkendija’s player and he said: we simply have to win

Sileks new promoted team but doing very well, reason is that on home ground they are making torture, but they wont do that against Shkendija becuase if they do that and if Shkendija’s fans found out that (and they will) there will be HUGE problems when Sileks come in Tetovo [shkendija's fans are crazy, they killed one fan before few years]. For this match Sileks will miss 3 players but not so important, anyway for their small roster it could be problem in rotation.


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23th November strong free pick

Emelec – Independiente
Inedependiente +0ah @2.05 (bet365)
stake: 3/10

Emelec will go with reserves on this match, only few first team players will be in starting line up rest will be bench players and youngsters.
Probable line up: Klimowicz(third gk 0/0); Carlos Moreno(df 1/0), José Luis Quiñonez(df 24/0), Pinillo(df 0/0), Byron Mina(df 4/0); Noboa(mf 3/0), Gaibor(mf 10/3), Burbano(mf 24/1), Fernández(4/0); Escalada(att 24/5) y Herrera(att 11/2)

question is why they do this when they have no reason, they arent playing other competition, arent having important match next week so WHY? Reason is because they are against Barcelona SC and they want Independiente to win the title (if i understood good from comments and all texts which i read)

Independiente in great form, leader on table. They strongly want this title and they are highly motivated, atmosfhere is great.
In last match vs Emelec they won high 5-0 on home ground  (o.O)


Sloboda – Sarajevo

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free strong pick Saturday (22th)

Croatia 2 NHL
Sesvete – Imotski 1 @1.91 (williamhil)
stake: 3/10
i like this odds and i will take it. Sesvete is doing amazing job on home ground, they are very strong. for example in last round they won 2nd placed Inter zapresic with enormous 5-0!! For this match they have full squad available and they will attack for a win.

Imotski is average team, On away ground solid > 3w-2d-2l. When i read Imotski’s coach interview i was (o.O) Imotski’s coach on interview: It would be great if we take point, if not it wont be end of the world
Imotski today will miss two key players, best defender Grgic(df 15/0) and best midifler Seradrusic(mf 14/1) are both out and that will be massive blow for the team.
last match Imotski 0-1 Sesvete, now sesvete on home ground, imotski miss two key players should be home win..
odds in croatian local bookie 1.60 …

Forfar – Ayr
pick: Forfar -1ah @1.96 (12bet) ; 1.94 pinacle,sbobet,188bet
stake: 3/10
Forfar 2nd placed team on table with only 1 point behind 1st placed team. On home ground they are very strong 5w-1d-0l with goal difference 13:4. For today’s match no important missings.

Ayr in last 9 matches have 2 wins and 7 losses … atmosfhere in team is not good, now Ayr with serious defencive problems, 5 important defenders will miss plus two other good midiflers. Murphy(df 10/1), Devlin(df 12/0), Campbell(df 8/0), McKinlay(df 9/0), Donald(df 11/0), Slane(mf 7/0) and most experienced Rutkiwiecz(mf 2/0) are all injured.

this two clubs have some interesting matches in the past with ht/ft 2/1 .. but that was long time ago(before 2-3 seasons), maybe now is time again to do that. 2/1 @22.00 (betvictor) minimal stakes.

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Saturday interesting infos

Brazil Serie A
Internacional – Atletico MG
Internacional with long list of injuries, Juan(df 21/0), Winck(df 12/1),Indio(Df 1/0),Luque(att 1/0),Sasha(Att 12/4),ParticK(mf 24/2),Wellington(mf 19/1) and NIlmar(att 8/2) are all out due to injury.
Atletico MG will rest key players, coach will give chance to those who played less, 7 bench players will be in starting line up tonight.

Dunauvjaros – Paksi
Dunauvjaros will miss three regular players, central defencive duo Szekeres(df 9/0) and Gavric(df 9/0) are out, Jozis(mf 9/0) is also out due to injury.
Paksi in full squad.

Puskas – Haladas
Puskas without few important players, regular LB Tamas(df 11/0),Guaru(df 3/0),Spandler(df 4/0) and reglar DM Toth(mf 9/1) are all injured. Important players Vaszicsku(df 11/0) and Lencse(att 14/3) are suspended
Atmosfhere in Haladas’s club is not good. For this match thy will miss 3 regular defenders, out are Devecseri(df 13/0) and Katona(df 10/0) bot injured, Feher(df 10/0) suspended. Jancso(mf 7/0) and Medgyes)(att 3/0) are also out

Maribor – Koper
Maribor with soem bad results in league because they play on many fronts and coach must rotate but today wont be rotations. only Zahovic(att 13/8 top scorer) is suspended. two toher ke players Ibraimi(mf 8/0) and Tavares(att 15/6),2nd scorer) are doubtful
Big problems inside Koper’s club, some players alreayd start leaving club.. today vs champion they will miss Radosevic(first gk 11/0 injured), central defencive duo Hadzic(df 15/3 suspended) and Halilovic(df 13/0 injured), Palcic(mf 7/0) and Delic(mf 5/1). Club because of some bad atmosfhere left Ivetic(mf 14/1 starter) and Mitrovic(att 10/0 rotation).

Italy Serie B
Brescia – Carpi
Brescia with 3 big missings in midfield, attacking midifler Sodinha(mf 8/0) and two important central midiflers Budel(mf 10/0) and Sestu(mf 10/1) are all injured, important Corvia(att 6/0) are all injured
Carpi will have big boost because 4 important players are BACK in squad, Gabriel(first gk 11/0),Struna(df 9/0),Suagher(df 11/0) and Pasciunti(mf 10/0) are all back after missing last match.

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friday night strong pick

Vila Nova – ABC  dnb2 @1.50 (bet365)
stake: 5/10
FT 3-5 pick WON Spain Segunda Spain Segunda  :-D  +2,5 units

Vila Nova already relegated, players already start leaving club becuase next season they will play in 3rd league and becuase club is having finacnial problems almost whole season and becuase of late wages.
So Cleber Alves(first gk 32/0),Gabriel(df 28/0),Leo Rodrigues(df 24/2),Radames(mf 28/2),Bonilha(mf 24/1) and Dimba(att 15/1) already left club (5 regular players). Angelo(df 4/0),Julio(df 3/0),Jeferson(mf 14/0),Bispo(df 2/0),Daniel(mf 2/0) and Paulista(att 6/0) are all injured.
Tonight line up will be: André Luís(3/0); Wanderson(9/0), Gustavo, Bruno Bera(0/0) e Wellington(0/0); Felipe Macena, Leonardo, Lucas Sotero(13/2), Hugo(8/0) e Paulinho; Ítallo(14/0).
like you can see 7 reserves/bench players will be in starting line up…

ABC go with strongest possible squad, they need only 1 point officially to avoid relegation so that is the reason why i go with dnb and not clear win here.

bigger stakes than usual, Vila Nova only advantage is home field but they dont have any support by fans anymore because of poor matches and becuase they already relegate..


strong free pick friday

Dijon – Orleans 1 @1.81 (188bet ; pinnacle)
stake: 2/10
FT 2-1 pick WON Spain Segunda Spain Segunda  :-D  +1,62 units

Dijon is promotion candidate who is ultra strong on home ground, 6w-0d-0l with only 1 goal conceded. No importnat missings for this match, they also played cup match before 1 week but they won with high 0-9 on away ground so confidence and atmosfhere in team is on good level.

Orleans is new promoted side in league, their main target this season is to avoid relegation and they started good (imo that was lucky start) and after that they enter in serie of 9 matches without a win (in last round they finally win vs weak Clermont 2-1 on home ground) and stop bad serie..
also last week in cup match they play hard game, on penalties (120 minutes + penalties) vs weak 4th league side …
main reason why i bet against them is their form on away ground lately, like i said in last match on away ground they just draw vs poor 4th league side in cup, also in league they are 5 matches without win on away ground so ..
also very important to make this bet are missings in away team, 3 very important players will miss this match.
Orleans without Brillaut(df 12/2) and Ponroy(df 10/1) – central defensive duo, both suspended. Puyo(att 13/4 top scorer) is injured.
The absence of two central defenders will be a massive blow for team and Dijon should use that and win this match.

my prediction 2-0, GL

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19/11 hunting big odds

Universidad SC – Marquense
pick: DNB2 @3.25 (sportingbet)

FT 2-0 lost :-(

I cant understand this odds and I see huge value here.
Ok I know this is league where home ground means a lot and usually hosts won matches but here simply i cant agree about odds! I will explain why..

Universidad is 8th placed with 23 points, of course like all other teams they won most of the points on home ground (20 of total 23) – 6w-2d-1l on home field but today i go against them. They are in terrible form lately 4 matches without a win (1d-3l), In last two matches (where they usually won all points) they didnt win.. They played just 1-1 vs worst team in league Coatepeque on home ground [Big dissapointment], also they lost 0-1 vs Municipal(3rd placed) on home ground…
And most important why i bet against them is the fact that they are missing six important players (3 suspended and 5 injured).. Medina(df 10/0), Moreira(df 16/1), Rodriguez(df 12/1), Torres(df 13/0), colombian experienced Betancur(mf 3/1) and Grajeda(mf 13/0) are all out. Monterroso(df 3/0) and best striker Suazo(att 13/4 ,2nd scorer) are also out due to injury.
link 1:
link 2:

Also from what i read their coach Cordero is having flu so maybe he wont lead the team tonight.

Marquense is 1st on table, leader on table. In amazing form 4 wins in a row without conceded goal! Imo they are better team, in better form.. of course only problem will be field (it means a lot in Guatemala futbol) but still i believe they will do something tonight!
Their line up for tonight; Marvin Barrios; Edwin Fuentes, Joaquín Álvarez, Leonel Noriega, Eduardo Beltrán Soto; Kenwi Velásquez, Brailin De León, Brandon De León, Frank De León, Kevin Norales y Jonny Brown.
strong line up, no rotations. Only two regulars midiflers Grajeda and Leon are missings but imo they are replacable and nothing in compare with hosts absences…

GL guyz.


19/11 free strong pick

I am not in best form latelly, won,lost,won,lost … I cant enter in good form, lets hope thsi one will be winning pick and come back again with our good known long winning runs.

Los Andes – Almagro
los andes -0,75ah @1.73 (bet365)
stake: 4/10
FT 3-1 pick WON Spain Segunda Spain Segunda  :-D  +2,92 units

I see this one like big value, great odds.
This is most important match for Los Andes’s in near history, they must win this match to keep/stay on 1st place.
here is what coach said on the press: “We played great season but everything now is in this 90minutes who will be the most important in my life” You see how emotional and motivated they are, they really want this promotion!
confirmed line up for tonight: Maximiliano Gagliardo; Emmanuel Martínez, Maximiliano García, Daniel Franco y Juan Pablo Segovia; Diego Galeano, Mauro Pajón, Fernando Lorefice, Diego Cisterna; Ricardo Vera y Alejandro Noriega
they will go with strongest team!! good news captain Lorefice(mf 18/2) is back.

Almagro is on the bottom, 2nd worst team in league, they are in bad form, 14 matches without a win (7d-7l)… no comment, atmosfhere in team is not good. Also they are poor on away ground 1w-3d-5l. They play for nothing tonight! I dont see reason why would they be party breakers..!/-home/ for this match Bilbao(att 6/2), Quiroz(mf 17/0) and Sparapani(mf 12/2) will be rested.

they met before 1 month
Almagro 0-1 Los Andes.
now Los Andes on home ground, big fan support, highly motivated, msot important match of the season, must win situation.. should be easy home win.


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